{ "report": { "title": "America's Falling Birth Rate: U.S. Fertility & Family Affordability Report 2026", "slug": "us-fertility-family-affordability-2026", "version": "2.0", "release_date": "2026-09-02", "canonical_url": "https://financefirst.co/reports/us-fertility-family-affordability-2026", "author": "Asim Ahmad" }, "parameters": { "us_births_2024_final": 3628934, "us_births_2025_provisional": 3606400, "us_gfr_2024_final": 53.8, "us_gfr_2025_provisional": 53.1, "us_tfr_2024_final": 1.5995, "sgd_per_usd_2026_08_28": 1.2744, "default_discount_rate": 0.03, "cbo_fy2026_outlays_usd": 7400000000000 }, "singapore_timeline": [ { "age": 0, "component": "Baby Gift", "amount_sgd": 10000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 7846.83, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Cash in two tranches during the first 12 months", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 0, "component": "CDA First Step Grant", "amount_sgd": 5000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 3923.41, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Account grant", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 0, "component": "CDA co-match", "amount_sgd": 5000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 3923.41, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Maximum, conditional on eligible family deposits", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 1, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 2, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 3, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 4, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 5, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 6, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 7, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 8, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 9, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 10, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 11, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 12, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 13, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 14, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 15, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 16, "component": "Child Credit", "amount_sgd": 2000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 1569.37, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Annual credit; permitted child-related uses", "source_id": 2 }, { "age": 17, "component": "PSEA top-up", "amount_sgd": 10000, "amount_usd_at_2026_08_28_rate": 7846.83, "included_in_new_package_sgd_62000": true, "note": "Post-Secondary Education Account", "source_id": 2 } ], "policy_scenarios": [ { "scenario": "One-time $2,500 payment", "scenario_type": "One-time per-birth payment", "per_child_nominal_usd": 2500, "births_assumed": 3606400, "initial_year_gross_usd": 9016000000, "steady_state_annual_gross_usd": 9016000000, "birth_cohort_nominal_commitment_usd": 9016000000, "pv_per_child_usd_3pct": 2500, "pv_birth_cohort_usd_3pct": 9016000000, "share_of_cbo_fy2026_outlays": 0.0012183783783783783, "timing": "Paid at birth", "limitations": "Gross arithmetic only; excludes administration, eligibility, take-up, taxes, offsets and behavioral responses." }, { "scenario": "One-time $5,000 payment", "scenario_type": "One-time per-birth payment", "per_child_nominal_usd": 5000, "births_assumed": 3606400, "initial_year_gross_usd": 18032000000, "steady_state_annual_gross_usd": 18032000000, "birth_cohort_nominal_commitment_usd": 18032000000, "pv_per_child_usd_3pct": 5000, "pv_birth_cohort_usd_3pct": 18032000000, "share_of_cbo_fy2026_outlays": 0.0024367567567567566, "timing": "Paid at birth", "limitations": "Gross arithmetic only; excludes administration, eligibility, take-up, taxes, offsets and behavioral responses." }, { "scenario": "One-time $10,000 payment", "scenario_type": "One-time per-birth payment", "per_child_nominal_usd": 10000, "births_assumed": 3606400, "initial_year_gross_usd": 36064000000, "steady_state_annual_gross_usd": 36064000000, "birth_cohort_nominal_commitment_usd": 36064000000, "pv_per_child_usd_3pct": 10000, "pv_birth_cohort_usd_3pct": 36064000000, "share_of_cbo_fy2026_outlays": 0.004873513513513513, "timing": "Paid at birth", "limitations": "Gross arithmetic only; excludes administration, eligibility, take-up, taxes, offsets and behavioral responses." }, { "scenario": "One-time $20,000 payment", "scenario_type": "One-time per-birth payment", "per_child_nominal_usd": 20000, "births_assumed": 3606400, "initial_year_gross_usd": 72128000000, "steady_state_annual_gross_usd": 72128000000, "birth_cohort_nominal_commitment_usd": 72128000000, "pv_per_child_usd_3pct": 20000, "pv_birth_cohort_usd_3pct": 72128000000, "share_of_cbo_fy2026_outlays": 0.009747027027027027, "timing": "Paid at birth", "limitations": "Gross arithmetic only; excludes administration, eligibility, take-up, taxes, offsets and behavioral responses." }, { "scenario": "Singapore around-S$70,000 lifetime equivalent", "scenario_type": "Currency-translated lifetime support benchmark", "per_child_nominal_usd": 54927.81, "births_assumed": 3606400, "initial_year_gross_usd": null, "steady_state_annual_gross_usd": null, "birth_cohort_nominal_commitment_usd": 198091650973.01, "pv_per_child_usd_3pct": null, "pv_birth_cohort_usd_3pct": null, "share_of_cbo_fy2026_outlays": null, "timing": "Benchmark spans birth through age 17; not a one-year expenditure", "limitations": "Uses the 2026-08-28 spot exchange rate, not purchasing-power parity. The official total is approximate and includes existing components." }, { "scenario": "Singapore new-package timing applied to a U.S. birth cohort", "scenario_type": "Structured birth-through-age-17 stream", "per_child_nominal_usd": 48650.35, "births_assumed": 3606400, "initial_year_gross_usd": 56597614563.72, "steady_state_annual_gross_usd": 175452605147.52, "birth_cohort_nominal_commitment_usd": 175452605147.52, "pv_per_child_usd_3pct": 40154.09, "pv_birth_cohort_usd_3pct": 144811699463.32, "share_of_cbo_fy2026_outlays": 0.023709811506421676, "timing": "Age 0: S$20,000; ages 1-16: S$2,000 annually; age 17: S$10,000", "limitations": "Assumes a stable number of births for the mature steady-state comparison and full CDA co-match. It is not a legislative score." } ], "discount_sensitivity": [ { "discount_rate": 0.0, "pv_per_child_sgd": 62000.0, "pv_per_child_usd": 48650.35, "pv_us_birth_cohort_usd": 175452605147.52, "exchange_rate_sgd_per_usd": 1.2744, "note": "FinanceFirst calculation; payment timing follows the new S$62,000 package only." }, { "discount_rate": 0.03, "pv_per_child_sgd": 51172.37, "pv_per_child_usd": 40154.09, "pv_us_birth_cohort_usd": 144811699463.32, "exchange_rate_sgd_per_usd": 1.2744, "note": "FinanceFirst calculation; payment timing follows the new S$62,000 package only." }, { "discount_rate": 0.05, "pv_per_child_sgd": 46038.51, "pv_per_child_usd": 36125.63, "pv_us_birth_cohort_usd": 130283480873.83, "exchange_rate_sgd_per_usd": 1.2744, "note": "FinanceFirst calculation; payment timing follows the new S$62,000 package only." } ], "state_rows": [ { "state": "Alabama", "state_abbreviation": "AL", "census_state_fips": "01", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 136.01, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 7072.52, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 8538.35, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 66659, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.1061, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1077, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 19996.52, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.299982, "births_2024": 57934, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 57.9, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 57.2, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Alaska", "state_abbreviation": "AK", "census_state_fips": "02", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 361.9, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 18818.8, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 22719.13, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 0.5347, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 95665, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.196716, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1444, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 36146.8, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.377848, "births_2024": 8943, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 62.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 60.8, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -1.6, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Arizona", "state_abbreviation": "AZ", "census_state_fips": "04", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 270.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 14040.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 16949.89, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 81486, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.1723, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1672, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 34104.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.418526, "births_2024": 78711, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 54.2, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 53.2, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -1.0, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Arkansas", "state_abbreviation": "AR", "census_state_fips": "05", "childcare_data_year": 2021, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2021", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 147.5, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 7670.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.254974, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 9625.65, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 0.9808, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 62106, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.123499, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 982, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 19454.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.313239, "births_2024": 35395, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 59.2, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 58.8, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.4, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "California", "state_abbreviation": "CA", "census_state_fips": "06", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 379.21, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 19718.92, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 23805.8, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 100149, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.196896, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 2104, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 44966.92, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.449, "births_2024": 402075, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 50.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 49.8, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.6, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Colorado", "state_abbreviation": "CO", "census_state_fips": "08", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 377.4, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 19624.8, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 23692.18, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 0.9998, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 97113, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.202082, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1822, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 41488.8, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.427222, "births_2024": 64268, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 50.2, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 51.6, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 1.4, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Connecticut", "state_abbreviation": "CT", "census_state_fips": "09", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 350.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 18200.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 21972.08, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 96049, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.189487, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1550, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 36800.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.383138, "births_2024": 34599, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 50.2, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 48.9, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -1.3, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Delaware", "state_abbreviation": "DE", "census_state_fips": "10", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 280.28, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 14574.56, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 17595.24, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 87534, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.166502, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1530, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 32934.56, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.376249, "births_2024": 10550, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 54.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 53.7, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Florida", "state_abbreviation": "FL", "census_state_fips": "12", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 225.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 11700.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 14124.91, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 0.989, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 77735, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.150511, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1812, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 33444.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.430231, "births_2024": 224389, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 53.9, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 52.2, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -1.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Georgia", "state_abbreviation": "GA", "census_state_fips": "13", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 205.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 10660.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 12869.36, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 79991, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.133265, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1506, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 28732.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.35919, "births_2024": 126437, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 54.9, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 54.7, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.2, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Hawaii", "state_abbreviation": "HI", "census_state_fips": "15", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 365.77, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 19020.04, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 22962.08, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 0.9516, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 100745, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.188794, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1942, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 42324.04, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.420111, "births_2024": 14917, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 56.9, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 56.6, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.3, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Idaho", "state_abbreviation": "ID", "census_state_fips": "16", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 166.41, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 8653.32, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 10446.78, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 81166, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.106613, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1384, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 25261.32, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.31123, "births_2024": 23276, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 57.6, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 58.6, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 1.0, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Illinois", "state_abbreviation": "IL", "census_state_fips": "17", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 278.33, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 14473.16, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 17472.82, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 0.9364, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 83211, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.173933, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1322, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 30337.16, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.364581, "births_2024": 125731, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 50.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 49.7, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Indiana", "state_abbreviation": "IN", "census_state_fips": "18", "childcare_data_year": null, "childcare_vintage_group": "Not observed", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": null, "center_infant_annualized_usd": null, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": null, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": null, "cpi_context_classification": "Not available", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": null, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 71959, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": null, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1104, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": null, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": null, "births_2024": 80257, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 58.9, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 59.1, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 0.2, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Iowa", "state_abbreviation": "IA", "census_state_fips": "19", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 165.98, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 8630.96, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 10419.79, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 75501, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.114316, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 981, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 20402.96, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.270234, "births_2024": 36436, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 59.0, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 58.8, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.2, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Kansas", "state_abbreviation": "KS", "census_state_fips": "20", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 157.33, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 8181.16, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 9876.76, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 75514, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.10834, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1079, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 21129.16, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.279805, "births_2024": 33984, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 59.5, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 58.3, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -1.2, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Kentucky", "state_abbreviation": "KY", "census_state_fips": "21", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 151.3, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 7867.6, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 9498.21, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 64526, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.121929, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 998, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 19843.6, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.307529, "births_2024": 52913, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 60.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 60.3, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.1, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Louisiana", "state_abbreviation": "LA", "census_state_fips": "22", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 153.33, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 7973.16, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 9625.65, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 60986, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.130738, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1064, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 20741.16, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.340097, "births_2024": 53305, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 60.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 58.2, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -2.2, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Maine", "state_abbreviation": "ME", "census_state_fips": "23", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 230.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 11960.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 14438.79, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 76442, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.156458, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1210, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 26480.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.346406, "births_2024": 11601, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 47.0, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 46.3, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Maryland", "state_abbreviation": "MD", "census_state_fips": "24", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 327.39, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 17024.28, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 20552.68, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 102905, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.165437, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1721, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 37676.28, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.366127, "births_2024": 65797, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 54.1, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 53.3, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.8, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Massachusetts", "state_abbreviation": "MA", "census_state_fips": "25", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 461.55, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 24000.6, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 28974.89, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 104828, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.228952, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1848, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 46176.6, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.440499, "births_2024": 68184, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 47.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 46.8, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.6, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Michigan", "state_abbreviation": "MI", "census_state_fips": "26", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 173.2, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 9006.4, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 10873.04, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 72389, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.124417, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1168, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 23022.4, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.318037, "births_2024": 99525, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 52.2, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 51.5, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Minnesota", "state_abbreviation": "MN", "census_state_fips": "27", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 390.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 20280.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 24483.17, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 87117, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.23279, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1291, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 35772.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.41062, "births_2024": 62110, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 55.7, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 55.2, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.5, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Mississippi", "state_abbreviation": "MS", "census_state_fips": "28", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 118.68, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 6171.36, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 7450.42, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 59127, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.104375, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 990, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 18051.36, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.305298, "births_2024": 33473, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 59.2, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 57.3, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -1.9, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Missouri", "state_abbreviation": "MO", "census_state_fips": "29", "childcare_data_year": 2020, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2020", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 214.94, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 11176.88, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.278546, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 14290.15, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 0.5214, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 71589, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.156126, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1067, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 23980.88, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.33498, "births_2024": 67998, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 55.8, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 55.9, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 0.1, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Montana", "state_abbreviation": "MT", "census_state_fips": "30", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 220.81, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 11482.12, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 13861.87, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 75340, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.152404, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1177, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 25606.12, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.339874, "births_2024": 11331, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 52.2, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 53.3, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 1.1, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Nebraska", "state_abbreviation": "NE", "census_state_fips": "31", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 243.75, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 12675.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 15301.98, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 76376, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.165955, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1102, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 25899.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.339099, "births_2024": 24785, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 62.5, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 62.9, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 0.4, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Nevada", "state_abbreviation": "NV", "census_state_fips": "32", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 275.63, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 14332.76, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 17303.32, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 81134, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.176655, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1709, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 34840.76, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.429422, "births_2024": 32381, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 50.8, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 50.1, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "New Hampshire", "state_abbreviation": "NH", "census_state_fips": "33", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 300.05, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 15602.6, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 18836.35, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 99782, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.156367, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1558, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 34298.6, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.343735, "births_2024": 11770, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 46.8, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 45.9, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.9, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "New Jersey", "state_abbreviation": "NJ", "census_state_fips": "34", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 313.73, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 16313.96, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 19695.14, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 104294, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.156423, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1800, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 37913.96, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.36353, "births_2024": 101372, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 57.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 55.7, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -1.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "New Mexico", "state_abbreviation": "NM", "census_state_fips": "35", "childcare_data_year": null, "childcare_vintage_group": "Not observed", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": null, "center_infant_annualized_usd": null, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": null, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": null, "cpi_context_classification": "Not available", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": null, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 67816, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": null, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1117, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": null, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": null, "births_2024": 21328, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 51.5, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 51.9, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 0.4, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "New York", "state_abbreviation": "NY", "census_state_fips": "36", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 300.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 15600.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 18833.21, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 85820, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.181776, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1634, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 35208.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.410254, "births_2024": 205489, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 52.7, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 52.1, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.6, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "North Carolina", "state_abbreviation": "NC", "census_state_fips": "37", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 202.52, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 10531.04, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 12713.67, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 0.9995, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 73958, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.142392, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1338, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 26587.04, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.359488, "births_2024": 122856, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 56.0, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 55.8, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.2, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "North Dakota", "state_abbreviation": "ND", "census_state_fips": "38", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 213.81, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 11118.12, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 13422.43, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 77871, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.142776, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 980, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 22878.12, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.293795, "births_2024": 9634, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 62.0, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 60.4, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -1.6, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Ohio", "state_abbreviation": "OH", "census_state_fips": "39", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 295.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 15340.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 18519.32, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 72212, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.21243, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1090, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 28420.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.393563, "births_2024": 126795, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 56.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 55.6, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.8, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Oklahoma", "state_abbreviation": "OK", "census_state_fips": "40", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 215.46, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 11203.92, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 13526.01, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 66148, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.169377, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1044, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 23731.92, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.35877, "births_2024": 47962, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 59.1, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 58.4, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Oregon", "state_abbreviation": "OR", "census_state_fips": "41", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 329.44, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 17130.88, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 20681.37, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 85220, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.201019, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1597, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 36294.88, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.425896, "births_2024": 38963, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 45.9, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 46.1, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 0.2, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Pennsylvania", "state_abbreviation": "PA", "census_state_fips": "42", "childcare_data_year": 2020, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2020", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 217.9, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 11330.8, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.278546, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 14486.94, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 77545, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.146119, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1252, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 26354.8, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.339865, "births_2024": 127299, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 51.9, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 51.2, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.7, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Rhode Island", "state_abbreviation": "RI", "census_state_fips": "44", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 289.59, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 15058.68, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 18179.7, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 83504, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.180335, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1418, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 32074.68, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.38411, "births_2024": 10009, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 45.2, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 45.0, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.2, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "South Carolina", "state_abbreviation": "SC", "census_state_fips": "45", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 198.93, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 10344.36, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 12488.3, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 72350, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.142977, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1272, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 25608.36, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.353951, "births_2024": 58768, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 55.8, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 55.5, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.3, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "South Dakota", "state_abbreviation": "SD", "census_state_fips": "46", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 150.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 7800.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 9416.6, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 76881, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.101455, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 999, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 19788.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.257385, "births_2024": 11451, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 65.6, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 66.7, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 1.1, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Tennessee", "state_abbreviation": "TN", "census_state_fips": "47", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 211.67, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 11006.84, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 13288.08, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 71997, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.152879, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1284, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 26414.84, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.366888, "births_2024": 83833, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 58.9, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 58.5, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.4, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Texas", "state_abbreviation": "TX", "census_state_fips": "48", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 185.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 9620.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 11613.81, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 79721, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.120671, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1475, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 27320.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.342695, "births_2024": 390828, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 60.6, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 59.3, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -1.3, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Utah", "state_abbreviation": "UT", "census_state_fips": "49", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 226.27, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 11766.04, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 14204.63, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 96658, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.121729, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1593, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 30882.04, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.319498, "births_2024": 46664, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 59.6, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 59.9, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 0.3, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Vermont", "state_abbreviation": "VT", "census_state_fips": "50", "childcare_data_year": 2021, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2021", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 313.12, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 16282.24, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.254974, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 20433.79, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 82730, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.196812, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1319, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 32110.24, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.388133, "births_2024": 5023, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 42.1, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 41.7, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.4, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Virginia", "state_abbreviation": "VA", "census_state_fips": "51", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 246.72, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 12829.44, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 15488.43, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 92090, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.139314, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1646, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 32581.44, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.3538, "births_2024": 94054, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 53.6, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 53.7, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 0.1, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Washington", "state_abbreviation": "WA", "census_state_fips": "53", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 357.31, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 18580.12, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 22430.98, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 99389, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.186943, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1824, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 40468.12, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.407169, "births_2024": 83118, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 51.4, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 51.3, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.1, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": true, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "West Virginia", "state_abbreviation": "WV", "census_state_fips": "54", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 167.49, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 8709.48, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 10514.58, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 60798, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.143253, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 883, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 19305.48, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.317535, "births_2024": 17022, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 53.1, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 54.3, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 1.2, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Wisconsin", "state_abbreviation": "WI", "census_state_fips": "55", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 293.0, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 15236.0, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 18393.77, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 1.0, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 77488, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.196624, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 1142, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 28940.0, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.373477, "births_2024": 59686, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 53.6, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 52.8, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": -0.8, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." }, { "state": "Wyoming", "state_abbreviation": "WY", "census_state_fips": "56", "childcare_data_year": 2022, "childcare_vintage_group": "Observed 2022", "center_infant_weekly_median_usd": 161.17, "center_infant_annualized_usd": 8380.84, "national_childcare_cpi_context_factor_to_july_2026": 1.207257, "cpi_context_annualized_usd_july_2026": 10117.83, "cpi_context_classification": "National index context, not observed state price", "childcare_valid_price_coverage": 0.9872, "median_household_income_2024_usd": 75532, "childcare_share_of_median_household_income": 0.110957, "median_gross_rent_2024_monthly_usd": 998, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_usd": 20356.84, "illustrative_median_price_benchmark_share_of_income": 0.269513, "births_2024": 6089, "general_fertility_rate_2023": 54.5, "general_fertility_rate_2024": 54.8, "general_fertility_rate_change_2023_2024": 0.3, "state_pfml_law_enacted_as_of_2026_09_01": false, "composite_score": null, "comparability_note": "No composite score. Observed child care is latest nonmissing through 2022. CPI context is a national index translation, not a current state quote. Income and rent are 2024; GFR change compares final 2023 and 2024 rates." } ], "evidence_matrix": [ { "policy_domain": "Cash at birth", "study_setting": "Quebec, Canada; Allowance for Newborn Children", "design": "Policy discontinuity and administrative data", "outcome": "Births, with stronger response at higher birth orders", "finding": "The incentive increased fertility in the historical setting.", "confidence_for_direction_in_setting": "Moderate", "transfer_limit": "The size, era, tax system and family context differ from a current U.S. universal benefit.", "source_id": 20 }, { "policy_domain": "Universal child benefit", "study_setting": "Spain, 2007-2010", "design": "Policy introduction and withdrawal", "outcome": "Conceptions, abortions and maternal labor supply", "finding": "The benefit increased fertility partly through fewer abortions; eligible mothers stayed out of work longer after birth.", "confidence_for_direction_in_setting": "Moderate", "transfer_limit": "A single short-lived policy episode cannot establish the effect of a permanent U.S. program.", "source_id": 21 }, { "policy_domain": "Incremental welfare benefit", "study_setting": "U.S. state family-cap policies", "design": "Difference-in-differences across states", "outcome": "Births among affected populations", "finding": "The study found no evidence of a measurable fertility reduction and rejected aggregate declines greater than 1%.", "confidence_for_direction_in_setting": "Moderate", "transfer_limit": "A restriction on incremental benefits is not equivalent to a universal positive benefit.", "source_id": 23 }, { "policy_domain": "Paid parental leave", "study_setting": "Austria, leave duration changes", "design": "Regression discontinuities around eligibility cutoffs", "outcome": "Second births and return to work", "finding": "Longer leave increased second births and delayed short-run return to work; spacing responses mattered.", "confidence_for_direction_in_setting": "High", "transfer_limit": "Institutional design, job protection, birth order and timing differ from the United States.", "source_id": 22 }, { "policy_domain": "Universal child care", "study_setting": "Quebec, Canada", "design": "Long-run policy evaluation", "outcome": "Maternal employment, earnings and fiscal flows", "finding": "The program produced enduring maternal employment and earnings effects; the working paper estimates substantial fiscal recapture.", "confidence_for_direction_in_setting": "Moderate", "transfer_limit": "The fiscal estimates are preliminary and this is not direct fertility evidence.", "source_id": 24 }, { "policy_domain": "Refundable child tax credit", "study_setting": "United States, temporary 2021 expansion", "design": "Census microsimulation using CPS ASEC", "outcome": "Supplemental Poverty Measure", "finding": "Census estimated that the expansion accounted for 2.1 million children lifted above the poverty line.", "confidence_for_direction_in_setting": "High for modeled poverty effect", "transfer_limit": "This measures a historical antipoverty effect, not fertility or long-run labor supply.", "source_id": 16 }, { "policy_domain": "Housing affordability", "study_setting": "U.S. metro areas, 1990-2006", "design": "Panel analysis with homeowner and nonowner channels", "outcome": "Birth rates", "finding": "Higher home prices were associated with fewer births among nonowners and a positive wealth channel among owners.", "confidence_for_direction_in_setting": "Moderate", "transfer_limit": "Opposing channels and historical data argue against one national housing-to-fertility coefficient.", "source_id": 25 }, { "policy_domain": "Paid family leave", "study_setting": "California, 2004 law", "design": "Long-run quasi-experimental evaluation", "outcome": "Leave use and maternal labor-market outcomes", "finding": "The law increased leave use and affected later maternal employment and wages.", "confidence_for_direction_in_setting": "Moderate", "transfer_limit": "Not a direct estimate of completed fertility; access and take-up vary.", "source_id": 26 } ], "policy_models": [ { "model": "Cash First", "baby_bonus_usd": 10000, "annual_child_credit_usd": 2000, "annual_child_credit_years": 5, "annual_childcare_subsidy_usd": 0, "childcare_subsidy_years": 0, "one_time_paid_leave_benefit_usd": 0, "nominal_per_child_usd": 20000, "first_year_gross_usd": 43276800000, "birth_cohort_nominal_commitment_usd": 72128000000, "mature_steady_state_annual_gross_usd": 72128000000, "present_value_per_child_usd_3pct": 19159.41, "present_value_birth_cohort_usd_3pct": 69096511999.8, "share_of_cbo_fy2026_outlays": 0.009747027027027027, "design_tradeoff": "Fast, visible liquidity; limited direct effect on child care supply or leave access.", "major_implementation_constraint": "Payment delivery and distributional design; cash does not create child care or housing supply.", "status": "FinanceFirst illustrative scenario, not a policy recommendation or legislative score" }, { "model": "Cost Reduction", "baby_bonus_usd": 0, "annual_child_credit_usd": 0, "annual_child_credit_years": 0, "annual_childcare_subsidy_usd": 6000, "childcare_subsidy_years": 5, "one_time_paid_leave_benefit_usd": 10000, "nominal_per_child_usd": 40000, "first_year_gross_usd": 57702400000, "birth_cohort_nominal_commitment_usd": 144256000000, "mature_steady_state_annual_gross_usd": 144256000000, "present_value_per_child_usd_3pct": 37478.24, "present_value_birth_cohort_usd_3pct": 135161535999.39, "share_of_cbo_fy2026_outlays": 0.019494054054054053, "design_tradeoff": "Targets early-care costs; requires provider capacity, quality controls and eligibility design.", "major_implementation_constraint": "Provider capacity, workforce, quality, eligibility and payment administration.", "status": "FinanceFirst illustrative scenario, not a policy recommendation or legislative score" }, { "model": "Hybrid", "baby_bonus_usd": 5000, "annual_child_credit_usd": 2000, "annual_child_credit_years": 16, "annual_childcare_subsidy_usd": 4000, "childcare_subsidy_years": 5, "one_time_paid_leave_benefit_usd": 10000, "nominal_per_child_usd": 67000, "first_year_gross_usd": 75734400000, "birth_cohort_nominal_commitment_usd": 241628800000, "mature_steady_state_annual_gross_usd": 241628800000, "present_value_per_child_usd_3pct": 58441.03, "present_value_birth_cohort_usd_3pct": 210761740692.7, "share_of_cbo_fy2026_outlays": 0.032652540540540544, "design_tradeoff": "Spreads support across timing and costs; larger administrative and fiscal footprint.", "major_implementation_constraint": "Cross-agency coordination, durable funding and simultaneous service capacity.", "status": "FinanceFirst illustrative scenario, not a policy recommendation or legislative score" } ], "demographic_clock": [ { "year": 2025, "milestone": "SSA reported 2.6 covered workers per OASDI beneficiary", "measure_type": "Observed ratio", "source_id": 13, "caveat": "The ratio is influenced by employment, immigration, disability and retirement patterns as well as fertility." }, { "year": 2030, "milestone": "CBO projects annual deaths begin to exceed births", "measure_type": "Projection", "source_id": 12, "caveat": "Timing can change as fertility, mortality and immigration change." }, { "year": 2032, "milestone": "OASI reserve depletion projected in Q4; 78% of scheduled OASI benefits payable", "measure_type": "Trustees projection", "source_id": 14, "caveat": "Not a forecast that Social Security pays nothing; Congress can change law." }, { "year": 2033, "milestone": "Medicare HI reserve depletion projected in Q2; 89% of scheduled benefits payable", "measure_type": "Trustees projection", "source_id": 14, "caveat": "Health costs, payrolls and policy also drive the projection." }, { "year": 2034, "milestone": "Combined OASDI reserve depletion projected; 83% of scheduled benefits payable", "measure_type": "Trustees projection", "source_id": 14, "caveat": "Combined-fund presentation assumes legal authority to combine reserves, which current law does not provide." }, { "year": 2056, "milestone": "CBO projects 2.2 people ages 25-64 per person age 65 or older", "measure_type": "Projection", "source_id": 12, "caveat": "An age-support ratio is not the same as workers per beneficiary." }, { "year": 2075, "milestone": "SSA projects about 1.9 covered workers per OASDI beneficiary", "measure_type": "Trustees projection", "source_id": 13, "caveat": "Long-range projection under intermediate assumptions." } ], "fertility_immigration": [ { "identity": "Population change", "formula": "Births - deaths + net international migration", "interpretation": "When deaths exceed births, positive net migration can still sustain population growth.", "source_id": 12 }, { "identity": "CBO milestone", "formula": "Deaths > births beginning in 2030 (projected)", "interpretation": "CBO projects net immigration accounts for all U.S. population growth after that point.", "source_id": 12 }, { "identity": "No-immigration counterfactual", "formula": "Net international migration = 0", "interpretation": "Under CBO's 2026 projection, the U.S. population would begin shrinking in 2030.", "source_id": 12 }, { "identity": "Policy implication", "formula": "Family policy and immigration policy affect different terms", "interpretation": "They can be complements. Neither should be presented as a guaranteed substitute for the other.", "source_id": 12 } ], "pew_reasons": [ { "reason": "Just do not want to", "major_reason_percent": 57, "ages_18_39_percent": null, "ages_40_49_percent": null, "population": "Adults ages 18-49 without children who say they are not too or not at all likely to have children", "survey_field_dates": "2024-04-29 to 2024-05-19", "subgroup_n": 770, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.3, "multiple_responses_allowed": true, "source_id": 28 }, { "reason": "Want to focus on other things", "major_reason_percent": 44, "ages_18_39_percent": 51, "ages_40_49_percent": 27, "population": "Adults ages 18-49 without children who say they are not too or not at all likely to have children", "survey_field_dates": "2024-04-29 to 2024-05-19", "subgroup_n": 770, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.3, "multiple_responses_allowed": true, "source_id": 28 }, { "reason": "Concerns about the state of the world", "major_reason_percent": 38, "ages_18_39_percent": 43, "ages_40_49_percent": 25, "population": "Adults ages 18-49 without children who say they are not too or not at all likely to have children", "survey_field_dates": "2024-04-29 to 2024-05-19", "subgroup_n": 770, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.3, "multiple_responses_allowed": true, "source_id": 28 }, { "reason": "Cannot afford to raise a child", "major_reason_percent": 36, "ages_18_39_percent": 41, "ages_40_49_percent": 22, "population": "Adults ages 18-49 without children who say they are not too or not at all likely to have children", "survey_field_dates": "2024-04-29 to 2024-05-19", "subgroup_n": 770, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.3, "multiple_responses_allowed": true, "source_id": 28 } ], "family_formation_framework": [ { "factor": "Preferences", "question": "Does a person want children?", "examples": "Desired family size; personal priorities", "measurement_limit": "Stated ideals and preferences can change and do not equal births." }, { "factor": "Timing", "question": "Is parenthood delayed?", "examples": "Education; career timing; later partnership", "measurement_limit": "A delayed birth can affect a period rate without changing completed family size." }, { "factor": "Partnership", "question": "Is there a partner with whom someone wants children?", "examples": "Relationship formation; stability; shared plans", "measurement_limit": "Household surveys do not provide a single causal partner-availability coefficient." }, { "factor": "Direct cost", "question": "Can the household pay child-related expenses?", "examples": "Child care; health care; housing; basic needs", "measurement_limit": "Cost exposure differs by location, family support and service use." }, { "factor": "Opportunity cost", "question": "What earnings or career progression may be forgone?", "examples": "Leave; reduced hours; unpaid care", "measurement_limit": "Impacts depend on wages, leave rules, job flexibility and caregiving division." }, { "factor": "Service availability", "question": "Do needed services and homes exist?", "examples": "Child care slots; family housing; health care access", "measurement_limit": "A subsidy cannot guarantee added capacity or prevent price pass-through." }, { "factor": "Health and uncertainty", "question": "Do health constraints or broader risks alter plans?", "examples": "Infertility; job security; economic and world conditions", "measurement_limit": "Overlapping risks cannot be assigned fixed national weights from one survey." } ], "policy_evidence_scorecard": [ { "policy": "One-time baby bonus", "household_cash_flow": "Strong evidence", "child_poverty": "Limited evidence", "parental_employment": "Mixed evidence", "birth_timing": "Moderate evidence", "completed_fertility": "Limited evidence", "supply_requirement": "Low for payment delivery; no service capacity created", "evidence_confidence": "Moderate", "methodology": "Labels summarize direction, recurrence and causal quality across cited studies; they are qualitative and do not estimate U.S. ROI.", "source_ids": "20;30" }, { "policy": "Recurring child allowance or credit", "household_cash_flow": "Strong evidence", "child_poverty": "Strong evidence", "parental_employment": "Mixed evidence", "birth_timing": "Moderate evidence", "completed_fertility": "Limited evidence", "supply_requirement": "Low for cash; delivery and tax-filing systems matter", "evidence_confidence": "Moderate to strong by endpoint", "methodology": "Labels summarize direction, recurrence and causal quality across cited studies; they are qualitative and do not estimate U.S. ROI.", "source_ids": "16;21;30" }, { "policy": "Paid parental leave", "household_cash_flow": "Moderate evidence", "child_poverty": "Limited evidence", "parental_employment": "Moderate evidence", "birth_timing": "Moderate evidence", "completed_fertility": "Limited evidence", "supply_requirement": "Employer, insurance and job-protection administration", "evidence_confidence": "Moderate", "methodology": "Labels summarize direction, recurrence and causal quality across cited studies; they are qualitative and do not estimate U.S. ROI.", "source_ids": "22;26;30" }, { "policy": "Child care subsidy or ECEC", "household_cash_flow": "Moderate evidence", "child_poverty": "Moderate evidence", "parental_employment": "Strong evidence", "birth_timing": "Mixed evidence", "completed_fertility": "Mixed evidence", "supply_requirement": "High: providers, workers, quality and available places", "evidence_confidence": "Moderate to strong by endpoint", "methodology": "Labels summarize direction, recurrence and causal quality across cited studies; they are qualitative and do not estimate U.S. ROI.", "source_ids": "24;30" }, { "policy": "Housing assistance", "household_cash_flow": "Moderate evidence", "child_poverty": "Moderate evidence", "parental_employment": "Not established", "birth_timing": "Mixed evidence", "completed_fertility": "Limited evidence", "supply_requirement": "High where housing supply is constrained", "evidence_confidence": "Limited for fertility", "methodology": "Labels summarize direction, recurrence and causal quality across cited studies; they are qualitative and do not estimate U.S. ROI.", "source_ids": "25;30" }, { "policy": "Combined family-policy package", "household_cash_flow": "Strong evidence", "child_poverty": "Strong evidence", "parental_employment": "Moderate evidence", "birth_timing": "Mixed evidence", "completed_fertility": "Mixed evidence", "supply_requirement": "High and cross-agency", "evidence_confidence": "Mixed because components and contexts differ", "methodology": "Labels summarize direction, recurrence and causal quality across cited studies; they are qualitative and do not estimate U.S. ROI.", "source_ids": "30" } ], "international_cases": [ { "country_program": "Singapore, 2026 package", "intervention": "Cash, child credits, matched savings, education support, leave, child care and housing measures", "intended_objective": "Reduce family-formation barriers and support children over time", "observed_evidence": "Policy announced in August 2026; demographic effect is not yet observable", "main_limitation": "Future outcomes cannot be attributed in advance", "us_lesson": "Timing, eligibility, services and housing matter as much as the headline amount", "source_ids": "1;2;3" }, { "country_program": "Quebec newborn allowance", "intervention": "Cash incentive with amounts varying by birth order", "intended_objective": "Increase births", "observed_evidence": "Quasi-experimental research found higher fertility in that historical setting, especially at higher birth orders", "main_limitation": "Era, tax system, benefit design and family context differ", "us_lesson": "Cash can affect specific margins without providing a universal national effect", "source_ids": "20" }, { "country_program": "Spain universal child benefit", "intervention": "Temporary universal payment introduced in 2007 and withdrawn in 2010", "intended_objective": "Support families", "observed_evidence": "Study found changes in conceptions, abortions and early maternal labor supply", "main_limitation": "Short-lived policy episode and context-specific channels", "us_lesson": "Fertility timing and labor effects should be reported separately", "source_ids": "21" }, { "country_program": "Austria parental leave", "intervention": "Changes in paid-leave duration around eligibility cutoffs", "intended_objective": "Support work-family transitions", "observed_evidence": "Longer leave increased second births and delayed return to work in the studied setting", "main_limitation": "Birth order, job protection and Austrian institutions matter", "us_lesson": "Leave can affect spacing and employment differently", "source_ids": "22" }, { "country_program": "Poland Family 500+", "intervention": "Recurring child benefit", "intended_objective": "Reduce child poverty and support families", "observed_evidence": "OECD synthesis reports lower poverty but no sustained fertility increase", "main_limitation": "Concurrent economic and demographic trends complicate attribution", "us_lesson": "Success on poverty does not require success on fertility", "source_ids": "30" }, { "country_program": "South Korea family support", "intervention": "Expanded ECEC and other family supports", "intended_objective": "Reduce work-family conflict and support births", "observed_evidence": "Extensive support expansion did not reverse the country's fertility decline", "main_limitation": "Housing, work culture, partnership and education pressures also matter", "us_lesson": "Generous benefits do not guarantee replacement fertility", "source_ids": "30" }, { "country_program": "Hungary multi-policy package", "intervention": "Cash, tax, housing and early-childhood measures", "intended_objective": "Support families and raise fertility", "observed_evidence": "OECD describes a partial rebound alongside extensive support, not a return to replacement fertility", "main_limitation": "Policy components, economic changes and access by employment status overlap", "us_lesson": "A policy system may matter more than one benefit, but transfer remains uncertain", "source_ids": "30" } ], "ssa_fertility_sensitivity": [ { "ultimate_tfr": 1.4, "actuarial_balance_25_year_pct_payroll": -2.67, "actuarial_balance_50_year_pct_payroll": -4.0, "actuarial_balance_75_year_pct_payroll": -5.23, "annual_balance_2100_pct_payroll": -10.18, "combined_depletion_year": 2034, "source_id": 31 }, { "ultimate_tfr": 1.75, "actuarial_balance_25_year_pct_payroll": -2.69, "actuarial_balance_50_year_pct_payroll": -3.7, "actuarial_balance_75_year_pct_payroll": -4.42, "annual_balance_2100_pct_payroll": -6.57, "combined_depletion_year": 2034, "source_id": 31 }, { "ultimate_tfr": 2.1, "actuarial_balance_25_year_pct_payroll": -2.71, "actuarial_balance_50_year_pct_payroll": -3.42, "actuarial_balance_75_year_pct_payroll": -3.67, "annual_balance_2100_pct_payroll": -3.89, "combined_depletion_year": 2034, "source_id": 31 } ], "ssa_immigration_sensitivity": [ { "average_annual_net_immigration_2036_2100": 750000, "actuarial_balance_25_year_pct_payroll": -2.9, "actuarial_balance_50_year_pct_payroll": -4.04, "actuarial_balance_75_year_pct_payroll": -4.86, "annual_balance_2100_pct_payroll": -7.62, "combined_depletion_year": 2034, "source_id": 31 }, { "average_annual_net_immigration_2036_2100": 1176000, "actuarial_balance_25_year_pct_payroll": -2.69, "actuarial_balance_50_year_pct_payroll": -3.7, "actuarial_balance_75_year_pct_payroll": -4.42, "annual_balance_2100_pct_payroll": -6.57, "combined_depletion_year": 2034, "source_id": 31 }, { "average_annual_net_immigration_2036_2100": 1621000, "actuarial_balance_25_year_pct_payroll": -2.46, "actuarial_balance_50_year_pct_payroll": -3.37, "actuarial_balance_75_year_pct_payroll": -4.0, "annual_balance_2100_pct_payroll": -5.7, "combined_depletion_year": 2034, "source_id": 31 } ], "demographic_levers": [ { "lever": "Higher fertility", "household_effect": "Family formation and child-related costs", "workforce_effect_begins": "Long lag", "fiscal_transmission": "More future workers and later beneficiaries", "major_uncertainty": "Whether policy changes completed fertility" }, { "lever": "Net immigration", "household_effect": "Population inflow and family formation", "workforce_effect_begins": "Potentially faster", "fiscal_transmission": "Workers and payroll taxes plus future beneficiaries", "major_uncertainty": "Age, skills, employment and policy" }, { "lever": "Labor-force participation", "household_effect": "More existing residents in paid work", "workforce_effect_begins": "Relatively fast", "fiscal_transmission": "More taxable earnings", "major_uncertainty": "Jobs, care constraints and participation response" }, { "lever": "Productivity and wages", "household_effect": "Potentially higher income per worker", "workforce_effect_begins": "Continuous", "fiscal_transmission": "Output, wages and revenue per worker", "major_uncertainty": "Long-run growth and distribution" } ], "policy_timing_map": [ { "stage": "Pregnancy and birth", "typical_constraints": "Medical costs, leave and income interruption", "singapore_support": "Baby Gift, CDA grant and co-match at birth", "policy_design_question": "How much liquidity arrives when earnings may fall?" }, { "stage": "First year", "typical_constraints": "Leave, infant expenses and child care transition", "singapore_support": "Baby Gift installments within the first 12 months", "policy_design_question": "Are cash, job protection and care access coordinated?" }, { "stage": "Ages 1-4", "typical_constraints": "Recurring child care and work-family scheduling", "singapore_support": "S$2,000 annual Child Credit", "policy_design_question": "Can families actually find a place, not only fund one?" }, { "stage": "School age", "typical_constraints": "Care needs change; housing and school access remain", "singapore_support": "S$2,000 annual Child Credit through age 16", "policy_design_question": "Does support adapt as household costs change?" }, { "stage": "Adolescence", "typical_constraints": "Food, transport, activities and education costs", "singapore_support": "Annual Child Credit", "policy_design_question": "Is the benefit stable enough to plan around?" }, { "stage": "Postsecondary transition", "typical_constraints": "Education and training costs", "singapore_support": "S$10,000 PSEA top-up at age 17", "policy_design_question": "Is support earmarked, flexible or conditional?" } ], "cbo_demographics": [ { "measure": "U.S. population", "year_or_period": "2026 to 2056", "value": "349 million to 364 million", "claim_type": "Projection", "interpretation": "Population growth slows and reaches zero in 2056 under current-law assumptions.", "source_id": 12 }, { "measure": "Deaths versus births", "year_or_period": "2030", "value": "Deaths begin to exceed births", "claim_type": "Projection", "interpretation": "Net immigration accounts for all population growth after this point in CBO's outlook.", "source_id": 12 }, { "measure": "No-immigration counterfactual", "year_or_period": "2030", "value": "Population begins shrinking", "claim_type": "Projection", "interpretation": "This isolates the arithmetic role of migration in the projection, not a policy forecast.", "source_id": 12 }, { "measure": "Ages 25-64 per person 65+", "year_or_period": "2026 to 2056", "value": "2.7 to 2.2", "claim_type": "Projection", "interpretation": "An age-support ratio is not the same as workers per beneficiary.", "source_id": 12 }, { "measure": "Total fertility rate", "year_or_period": "2024; 2026; 2036 onward", "value": "1.60; 1.58; 1.53", "claim_type": "Estimate and projection", "interpretation": "A period rate, not completed family size.", "source_id": 12 }, { "measure": "Social Security outlays", "year_or_period": "2056", "value": "6.0% of GDP", "claim_type": "Projection", "interpretation": "Demography, wages, benefits and policy all affect the ratio.", "source_id": 34 }, { "measure": "Medicare outlays", "year_or_period": "2056", "value": "5.5% of GDP", "claim_type": "Projection", "interpretation": "Population aging and health costs both matter.", "source_id": 34 } ], "us_fertility_trend": [ { "year": 1990, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 70.9, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.08, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 1991, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 69.3, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.06, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 1992, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 68.4, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.05, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 1993, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 67.0, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.02, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 1994, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 65.9, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.0, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 1995, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 64.6, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.98, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 1996, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 64.1, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.98, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 1997, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 63.6, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.97, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 1998, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 64.3, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.0, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 1999, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 64.4, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.01, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2000, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 65.9, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.06, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2001, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 65.1, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.03, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2002, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 65.0, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.02, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2003, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 66.1, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.05, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2004, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 66.4, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.05, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2005, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 66.7, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.06, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2006, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 68.6, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.11, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2007, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 69.3, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.12, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2008, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 68.1, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.07, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2009, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 66.2, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 2.0, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2010, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 64.1, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.93, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2011, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 63.2, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.89, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2012, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 63.0, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.88, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2013, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 62.5, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.86, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2014, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 62.9, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.86, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2015, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 62.5, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.84, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2016, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 62.0, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.82, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2017, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 60.3, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.77, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2018, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 59.1, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.73, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2019, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 58.3, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.71, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2020, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 55.7, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.64, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2021, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 56.3, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.66, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2022, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 56.0, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.66, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2023, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 54.5, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.62, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 35, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2024, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 53.8, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": 1.5995, "status": "Final observed period measure", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Period measure; not completed cohort fertility or an individual prediction." }, { "year": 2025, "general_fertility_rate_per_1000_women_15_44": 53.1, "total_fertility_rate_births_per_woman": null, "status": "Provisional observed period measure", "source_id": 4, "interpretation": "Provisional GFR; a final 2025 TFR was not used." } ], "mean_age_first_birth": [ { "year": 2010, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 25.4, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2011, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 25.6, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2012, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 25.8, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2013, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 26.0, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2014, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 26.3, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2015, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 26.4, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2016, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 26.6, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2017, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 26.8, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2018, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 26.9, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2019, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 27.0, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2020, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 27.1, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2021, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 27.3, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2022, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 27.4, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2023, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 27.5, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." }, { "year": 2024, "mean_age_at_first_birth": 27.6, "status": "Final observed national statistic", "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "A rising mean describes timing; it does not say whether a delayed birth is later recovered." } ], "birth_order_2024": [ { "birth_order": "First", "birth_order_number": 1, "births_2024": 1427020, "share_of_all_births_2024": 0.393234, "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Birth order is a count distribution, not evidence that a policy caused family size." }, { "birth_order": "Second", "birth_order_number": 2, "births_2024": 1137499, "share_of_all_births_2024": 0.313453, "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Birth order is a count distribution, not evidence that a policy caused family size." }, { "birth_order": "Third", "birth_order_number": 3, "births_2024": 586733, "share_of_all_births_2024": 0.161682, "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Birth order is a count distribution, not evidence that a policy caused family size." }, { "birth_order": "Fourth", "birth_order_number": 4, "births_2024": 262579, "share_of_all_births_2024": 0.072357, "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Birth order is a count distribution, not evidence that a policy caused family size." }, { "birth_order": "Fifth", "birth_order_number": 5, "births_2024": 107130, "share_of_all_births_2024": 0.029521, "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Birth order is a count distribution, not evidence that a policy caused family size." }, { "birth_order": "Sixth", "birth_order_number": 6, "births_2024": 46675, "share_of_all_births_2024": 0.012862, "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Birth order is a count distribution, not evidence that a policy caused family size." }, { "birth_order": "Seventh", "birth_order_number": 7, "births_2024": 21984, "share_of_all_births_2024": 0.006058, "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Birth order is a count distribution, not evidence that a policy caused family size." }, { "birth_order": "Eighth or higher", "birth_order_number": 8, "births_2024": 23966, "share_of_all_births_2024": 0.006604, "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Birth order is a count distribution, not evidence that a policy caused family size." }, { "birth_order": "Not stated", "birth_order_number": null, "births_2024": 15348, "share_of_all_births_2024": 0.004229, "source_id": 5, "interpretation": "Birth order is a count distribution, not evidence that a policy caused family size." } ], "childlessness_by_age": [ { "age_group": "30-34", "year": 2024, "percent_childless": 40.2, "source_id": 36, "note": "Childlessness at this age can include postponed childbearing." }, { "age_group": "35-39", "year": 2024, "percent_childless": 23.1, "source_id": 36, "note": "A cross-section, not completed cohort fertility." }, { "age_group": "40-44", "year": 2024, "percent_childless": 18.8, "source_id": 36, "note": "Some births can still occur later." }, { "age_group": "45-50", "year": 2014, "percent_childless": 16.7, "source_id": 42, "note": "Comparison point; Census warns of a 2012 processing change in longer series." }, { "age_group": "45-50", "year": 2024, "percent_childless": 14.9, "source_id": 42, "note": "Closer to completed childbearing than younger age groups, but still a survey estimate." } ], "bls_childcare_cpi": [ { "year": 2020, "period": "Annual", "index_1982_84_100": 311.888, "source_id": 39, "series_id": "CUUR0000SEEB03", "status": "Observed national CPI-U index", "warning": "National price-index context; not a current state price quote." }, { "year": 2021, "period": "Annual", "index_1982_84_100": 317.746, "source_id": 39, "series_id": "CUUR0000SEEB03", "status": "Observed national CPI-U index", "warning": "National price-index context; not a current state price quote." }, { "year": 2022, "period": "Annual", "index_1982_84_100": 330.305, "source_id": 39, "series_id": "CUUR0000SEEB03", "status": "Observed national CPI-U index", "warning": "National price-index context; not a current state price quote." }, { "year": 2023, "period": "Annual", "index_1982_84_100": 348.926, "source_id": 39, "series_id": "CUUR0000SEEB03", "status": "Observed national CPI-U index", "warning": "National price-index context; not a current state price quote." }, { "year": 2024, "period": "Annual", "index_1982_84_100": 367.585, "source_id": 39, "series_id": "CUUR0000SEEB03", "status": "Observed national CPI-U index", "warning": "National price-index context; not a current state price quote." }, { "year": 2025, "period": "Annual", "index_1982_84_100": 386.417, "source_id": 39, "series_id": "CUUR0000SEEB03", "status": "Observed national CPI-U index", "warning": "National price-index context; not a current state price quote." }, { "year": 2026, "period": "July", "index_1982_84_100": 398.763, "source_id": 39, "series_id": "CUUR0000SEEB03", "status": "Observed national CPI-U index", "warning": "National price-index context; not a current state price quote." } ], "study_registry": [ { "study": "Kearney, Levine and Pardue (2022)", "status": "Peer reviewed", "question": "Why did U.S. birth rates fall after the Great Recession?", "bounded_finding": "The recession helps explain the initial decline, but no single economic, policy or social factor explains the continued broad fall.", "causal_limit": "Synthesis, not a percentage decomposition.", "source_id": 33 }, { "study": "Kearney and Levine (2026)", "status": "Peer reviewed literature review", "question": "Why is fertility low across high-income countries?", "bounded_finding": "Cohort fertility and childlessness patterns reflect a complex mix of norms, context, work, parenting, gender roles, consumption and leisure.", "causal_limit": "Conceptual synthesis, not one causal estimate.", "source_id": 37 }, { "study": "Atlanta Fed Working Paper 2026-5", "status": "Institutional working paper; not peer reviewed", "question": "How do parity, stated desire and impaired fecundity differ across cohorts?", "bounded_finding": "Later cohorts are less likely to have had a child at the observed ages; a dramatic desire decline appears only for the youngest Gen Z group; impaired fecundity rises after Baby Boomers.", "causal_limit": "Young cohorts are incomplete; model estimates and discussion are suggestive, not causal.", "source_id": 38 }, { "study": "Pew adults without children survey (2024)", "status": "Transparent probability survey", "question": "What major reasons are reported by a defined subgroup unlikely to have children?", "bounded_finding": "Preferences, priorities, world concerns and affordability overlap.", "causal_limit": "Multiple responses and a selected subgroup cannot decompose the national trend.", "source_id": 28 }, { "study": "CDC age-specific fertility analysis (1990-2023)", "status": "Government descriptive analysis", "question": "How did maternal-age patterns change?", "bounded_finding": "Births shifted sharply toward ages 30 and older.", "causal_limit": "Delay can mean postponement or births ultimately forgone; the hypothetical adjustment is not a forecast.", "source_id": 35 } ], "fiscal_context": [ { "institution": "CBO", "measure": "Population", "period": "2026 to 2056", "value": "349 million to 364 million", "classification": "Projection", "source_id": 12, "caveat": "Growth reaches zero in 2056 under CBO assumptions." }, { "institution": "CBO", "measure": "Births and deaths", "period": "2030 onward", "value": "Deaths exceed births", "classification": "Projection", "source_id": 12, "caveat": "Net immigration then accounts for all projected population growth." }, { "institution": "CBO", "measure": "Ages 25-64 per person 65+", "period": "2026 to 2056", "value": "2.7 to 2.2", "classification": "Projection", "source_id": 12, "caveat": "Not identical to covered workers per beneficiary." }, { "institution": "SSA", "measure": "Combined OASDI depletion", "period": "2034", "value": "83% payable at depletion", "classification": "Trustees projection", "source_id": 14, "caveat": "Combined presentation is illustrative under current-law financing constraints." }, { "institution": "CMS", "measure": "Medicare HI depletion", "period": "Q2 2033", "value": "89% payable at depletion; 93% in 2100", "classification": "Trustees projection", "source_id": 40, "caveat": "SMI uses annual premiums and general revenues; it is not the same trust-fund mechanism." }, { "institution": "CBO", "measure": "Social Security plus Medicare outlays", "period": "2027 to 2036", "value": "8.7% to 10.1% of GDP", "classification": "Projection", "source_id": 34, "caveat": "Aging and per-beneficiary health costs both matter." } ], "sources": [ { "id": 1, "publisher": "Singapore Prime Minister's Office", "title": "National Day Rally 2026", "url": "https://www.pmo.gov.sg/newsroom/ndr2026/", "published_or_data_date": "2026-08-23", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government", "used_for": "Policy framing, total direct support and implementation context", "limitation": "Speech summary; detailed eligibility and timing come from the Strategy Group page.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 2, "publisher": "Singapore Strategy Group", "title": "Marriage and Parenthood Measures at National Day Rally 2026", "url": "https://www.strategygroup.gov.sg/marriage-parenthood-measures-at-national-day-rally-2026/", "published_or_data_date": "2026-08-23", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government", "used_for": "Benefit amounts, ages, transition and timing", "limitation": "Amounts are in Singapore dollars. The S$70,000 figure includes existing and approximate support and is not cash at birth.", "local_snapshot": "sources/singapore-ndr-2026-package.html" }, { "id": 3, "publisher": "Singapore Department of Statistics", "title": "Births and Fertility Table Builder", "url": "https://tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/table/TS/M810091", "published_or_data_date": "2025", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government data", "used_for": "Singapore live births and resident total fertility rate", "limitation": "Resident TFR is not directly comparable with every U.S. fertility measure.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 4, "publisher": "CDC National Center for Health Statistics", "title": "Provisional Births: 2025", "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf", "published_or_data_date": "2026-04", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government data", "used_for": "2025 U.S. birth count and general fertility rate", "limitation": "Provisional; based on records received and processed as of February 3, 2026.", "local_snapshot": "sources/cdc-provisional-births-2025.pdf" }, { "id": 5, "publisher": "CDC National Center for Health Statistics", "title": "Births: Final Data for 2024", "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr75/nvsr75-02.pdf", "published_or_data_date": "2026-06-09", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government data", "used_for": "Final 2024 births, GFR, TFR, first-birth rate, birth order and mean age at first birth", "limitation": "Period measures do not equal completed cohort fertility.", "local_snapshot": "sources/cdc-births-final-2024.pdf" }, { "id": 6, "publisher": "CDC National Center for Health Statistics", "title": "State Fertility Rate, 2024", "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/state-stats/births/fertility-rate.html", "published_or_data_date": "2026-04-08", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government data", "used_for": "State births and general fertility rates", "limitation": "Unadjusted state comparisons do not control for population composition.", "local_snapshot": "sources/cdc-2024-state-fertility-config.json" }, { "id": 7, "publisher": "U.S. Department of Labor Women's Bureau", "title": "National Database of Childcare Prices, 2008-2022", "url": "https://www.dol.gov/agencies/wb/topics/featured-childcare", "published_or_data_date": "2023", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government data", "used_for": "State child care price estimates", "limitation": "Historical provider prices; some states and years have missing or lower-coverage data.", "local_snapshot": "sources/dol-ndcp-2022-state-estimates.xlsx" }, { "id": 8, "publisher": "U.S. Department of Labor Women's Bureau", "title": "National Database of Childcare Prices Technical Report", "url": "https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/WB/National-Database-of-Childcare-Prices-Technical-Report.pdf", "published_or_data_date": "2023", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government methodology", "used_for": "Child care data definitions, modeling and limitations", "limitation": "County and state estimates are not current 2026 market quotes.", "local_snapshot": "sources/dol-ndcp-2022-technical-report.pdf" }, { "id": 9, "publisher": "U.S. Census Bureau", "title": "2024 ACS 1-year estimates, B19013 and B25064", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data/summary-file.2024.html", "published_or_data_date": "2024", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government data", "used_for": "State median household income and median gross rent", "limitation": "Survey estimates include sampling and non-sampling error; medians do not describe every household.", "local_snapshot": "apps/web-next/data/cost-of-living-official-2024.json" }, { "id": 10, "publisher": "U.S. Department of Labor Women's Bureau", "title": "Paid Leave", "url": "https://www.dol.gov/agencies/wb/featured-paid-leave", "published_or_data_date": "Current at access", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government policy inventory", "used_for": "State PFML law indicator", "limitation": "An enacted program does not mean every worker qualifies or receives the same benefit.", "local_snapshot": "sources/dol-paid-leave-current.html" }, { "id": 11, "publisher": "Federal Reserve Board via FRED", "title": "Singapore Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXSIUS)", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXSIUS", "published_or_data_date": "2026-08-28", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government data", "used_for": "Currency translation for comparison", "limitation": "Spot conversion is not purchasing-power parity and will change.", "local_snapshot": "sources/fred-dexsius.csv" }, { "id": 12, "publisher": "Congressional Budget Office", "title": "The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056", "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879", "published_or_data_date": "2026-01", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government projection", "used_for": "Population, births versus deaths, net immigration and age structure", "limitation": "Projection depends on assumptions and is not a prediction.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 13, "publisher": "Social Security Administration", "title": "2026 Trustees Report", "url": "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/II_D_project.html", "published_or_data_date": "2026-06-09", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government projection", "used_for": "Covered-worker ratios and reserve depletion projections", "limitation": "Intermediate-assumption projections are uncertain and Congress can change law.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 14, "publisher": "Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees", "title": "2026 Trustees Summary", "url": "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/tr26summary.pdf", "published_or_data_date": "2026-06-09", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government projection", "used_for": "OASI, OASDI and Medicare HI milestones", "limitation": "Reserve depletion is not the same as all benefits stopping.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 15, "publisher": "Congressional Budget Office", "title": "Budget and Economic Data, 2026 outlook", "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/topics/taxes/outlook-budget-and-economy", "published_or_data_date": "2026", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government projection", "used_for": "FY2026 outlay denominator", "limitation": "A fixed baseline denominator, not a score of any proposal.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 16, "publisher": "U.S. Census Bureau", "title": "Impact of the 2021 Expanded Child Tax Credit on Child Poverty", "url": "https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2022/demo/SEHSD-wp2022-24.html", "published_or_data_date": "2022-11-22", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Government working paper", "used_for": "Observed antipoverty effect of the temporary 2021 CTC expansion", "limitation": "Historical policy episode; does not estimate fertility response.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 17, "publisher": "Internal Revenue Service", "title": "Internal Revenue Bulletin 2025-45", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-irbs/irb25-45.pdf", "published_or_data_date": "2025-11", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government guidance", "used_for": "2026 Child Tax Credit parameters", "limitation": "Eligibility, phaseouts, filing and refundability rules apply.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 18, "publisher": "NCHS National Survey of Family Growth", "title": "Birth Expectations in the United States, 2022-2023", "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db560.htm", "published_or_data_date": "2026", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government survey", "used_for": "Expected future births", "limitation": "Expectations are not ideal family size or completed fertility.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 19, "publisher": "Gallup", "title": "Americans' Ideal Family Size Remains Above Two Children", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-size-remains-above-two-children.aspx", "published_or_data_date": "2025", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Transparent survey", "used_for": "Attitudes toward ideal family size", "limitation": "An attitude question is not intended, expected or completed fertility.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 20, "publisher": "Kevin Milligan", "title": "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility", "url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w8845", "published_or_data_date": "2002; journal 2005", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Peer-reviewed economics research", "used_for": "Quebec cash incentive evidence", "limitation": "Historical Canadian setting; stronger higher-order response does not transfer mechanically to current U.S. policy.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 21, "publisher": "Libertad Gonzalez", "title": "The Effect of a Universal Child Benefit on Conceptions, Abortions, and Early Maternal Labor Supply", "url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.5.3.160", "published_or_data_date": "2013", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Peer-reviewed economics research", "used_for": "Spanish universal child benefit evidence", "limitation": "One policy episode; fertility, abortion and labor-supply channels are context-specific.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 22, "publisher": "Rafael Lalive and Josef Zweimuller", "title": "How Does Parental Leave Affect Fertility and Return to Work?", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/124/3/1363/1905162", "published_or_data_date": "2009", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Peer-reviewed economics research", "used_for": "Austria paid-leave duration evidence", "limitation": "Historical institutional setting and policy discontinuities; timing and birth order matter.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 23, "publisher": "Melissa Kearney", "title": "Is There an Effect of Incremental Welfare Benefits on Fertility Behavior?", "url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w9093", "published_or_data_date": "2002", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Economics working paper", "used_for": "U.S. family-cap null-result evidence", "limitation": "Policy population and era differ from a universal child benefit.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 24, "publisher": "Michael Baker, Jonathan Gruber and Kevin Milligan", "title": "The Long-Run Impacts of a Universal Child Care Program", "url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w35514", "published_or_data_date": "2026", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Economics working paper", "used_for": "Quebec child care, labor supply and fiscal flows", "limitation": "Preliminary working paper; primarily labor-supply and fiscal evidence, not a fertility estimate.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 25, "publisher": "Lisa Dettling and Melissa Kearney", "title": "House Prices and Birth Rates", "url": "https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-fertility", "published_or_data_date": "2011", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Economics working paper summary", "used_for": "Housing price and fertility heterogeneity", "limitation": "Historical 1990-2006 data; opposing homeowner and renter channels caution against a simple national claim.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 26, "publisher": "Martha Bailey et al.", "title": "The Long-Run Effects of California's 2004 Paid Family Leave Act", "url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w26416", "published_or_data_date": "2019", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Economics working paper", "used_for": "Paid leave and maternal labor-market outcomes", "limitation": "Not a direct estimate of completed fertility.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 27, "publisher": "Congressional Budget Office", "title": "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2026 to 2056", "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61994", "published_or_data_date": "2026", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government projection", "used_for": "Fiscal-demographic context", "limitation": "Multiple economic, health, policy and demographic factors drive long-term outcomes.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 28, "publisher": "Pew Research Center", "title": "The Experiences of U.S. Adults Who Don't Have Children", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/the-experiences-of-u-s-adults-who-dont-have-children/", "published_or_data_date": "2024-07-25", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Transparent probability survey", "used_for": "Reasons adults under 50 who are unlikely to have children say are major reasons", "limitation": "Respondents could select multiple reasons. The subgroup is not all U.S. adults and the percentages do not decompose the national fertility decline.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 29, "publisher": "Pew Research Center", "title": "Adults Without Children: Methodology", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/adults-without-children-methodology/", "published_or_data_date": "2024-07-25", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Survey methodology", "used_for": "Sample definition, field dates, sample size and margin of sampling error", "limitation": "The relevant subgroup contained 770 adults ages 18-49; its margin of sampling error was plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 30, "publisher": "OECD", "title": "Society at a Glance 2024: OECD Social Indicators", "url": "https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2024/06/society-at-a-glance-2024_08001b73/918d8db3-en.pdf", "published_or_data_date": "2024-06", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Intergovernmental evidence synthesis", "used_for": "Cross-country fertility drivers and family-policy evidence", "limitation": "Cross-country findings are heterogeneous and do not identify one policy package that transfers mechanically to the United States.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 31, "publisher": "Social Security Administration", "title": "2026 Trustees Report: Long-Range Sensitivity Analysis", "url": "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/VI_D_LRsens.html", "published_or_data_date": "2026-06-09", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government sensitivity analysis", "used_for": "Official fertility and net-immigration actuarial-balance sensitivities", "limitation": "Values are Trustees estimates under specified alternative assumptions, not FinanceFirst calculations or forecasts.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 32, "publisher": "CDC National Center for Health Statistics", "title": "Births: Final Data for 2023", "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr74/nvsr74-1.pdf", "published_or_data_date": "2025-01", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government data", "used_for": "Comparable 2023 state general fertility rates for the one-year change field", "limitation": "A one-year unadjusted state change is descriptive and may reflect population composition, migration and sampling or reporting variation.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 33, "publisher": "Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine", "title": "The Puzzle of Falling U.S. Birth Rates since the Great Recession", "url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.36.1.151", "published_or_data_date": "2022", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Peer-reviewed economics synthesis", "used_for": "Evidence that no single post-recession economic, policy or social factor explains most of the decline", "limitation": "A synthesis of candidate explanations, not a decomposition assigning fixed shares to preferences or affordability.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 34, "publisher": "Congressional Budget Office", "title": "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036", "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105", "published_or_data_date": "2026", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government projection", "used_for": "Current outlays, population revisions, labor force and long-run fiscal channels", "limitation": "Budget and economic outcomes depend on policy and economic assumptions and are revised as new information arrives.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 35, "publisher": "CDC National Center for Health Statistics", "title": "Effects of Age-specific Fertility Trends on Overall Fertility Trends: United States, 1990-2023", "url": "https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/174576", "published_or_data_date": "2025-03-06", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government analysis", "used_for": "Long-run GFR, TFR and maternal-age shifts", "limitation": "The adjusted series are hypothetical decompositions and do not account for how a postponed birth affects later fertility.", "local_snapshot": "sources/cdc-age-specific-fertility-1990-2023.pdf" }, { "id": 36, "publisher": "U.S. Census Bureau", "title": "Fertility of Women in the United States: 2024", "url": "https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2024/demo/fertility/women-fertility.html", "published_or_data_date": "2025-08-25", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government survey tables", "used_for": "Childlessness by age and completed-fertility context", "limitation": "Current Population Survey estimates have sampling and non-sampling error; a 2012 processing change affects comparisons.", "local_snapshot": "sources/census-fertility-2024-table2.xlsx" }, { "id": 37, "publisher": "Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine", "title": "Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries?", "url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.20261786", "published_or_data_date": "2026-09", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Peer-reviewed literature synthesis", "used_for": "Cohort fertility, childlessness, norms, context and economic consequences", "limitation": "A synthesis and conceptual model, not a causal decomposition of the national decline.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 38, "publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta", "title": "What's Behind Declining Birth Rates in the U.S.?", "url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2026/05/13/05-whats-behind-declining-birth-rates-in-the-us", "published_or_data_date": "2026-05-13", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Institutional working paper", "used_for": "NSFG cohort patterns in parity, desire for children and impaired fecundity", "limitation": "Not peer reviewed; estimates are model-based, the youngest cohorts are incomplete and the discussion is suggestive rather than causal.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 39, "publisher": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "title": "CPI-U, U.S. city average, Day care and preschool (CUUR0000SEEB03)", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SEEB03", "published_or_data_date": "2020-01 through 2026-07", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government price index", "used_for": "National childcare inflation context and source-vintage indexing", "limitation": "A national consumer price index cannot create current state market prices or provider-level estimates.", "local_snapshot": "sources/bls-day-care-preschool-cpi-2020-2026.json" }, { "id": 40, "publisher": "Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services", "title": "2026 Medicare Trustees Report", "url": "https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026", "published_or_data_date": "2026-06", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government projection", "used_for": "HI reserve depletion, payable share and SMI financing context", "limitation": "Fertility is only one demographic input; healthcare costs, wages, policy and financing rules also matter.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 41, "publisher": "Singapore Department of Statistics", "title": "Births and Fertility Rates Data API", "url": "https://tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/api/table/tabledata/M810091", "published_or_data_date": "2025", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government data API", "used_for": "Latest resident TFR and birth counts", "limitation": "The API response can be revised; Singapore resident TFR and U.S. national TFR use different population concepts and should be compared directionally.", "local_snapshot": "" }, { "id": 42, "publisher": "U.S. Census Bureau", "title": "While Share of Younger Women Without Children Increased, More Women Had Children as They Entered Their Late 40s From 2014 to 2024", "url": "https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/09/older-mothers.html", "published_or_data_date": "2025-09-23", "accessed": "2026-09-02", "source_type": "Primary government analysis", "used_for": "Age-specific childlessness and the distinction between delay and later completed childbearing", "limitation": "Childless at an intermediate age does not mean permanently childless.", "local_snapshot": "" } ], "limitations": [ "No fertility response is forecast.", "No state composite score is calculated.", "Currency conversion is not purchasing-power parity.", "Cost scenarios are gross arithmetic, not legislative scores.", "Data periods differ and are labeled at the field level.", "Pew percentages apply to a defined subgroup and cannot decompose the national fertility decline.", "Trustees sensitivity values are official model outputs, not FinanceFirst calculations.", "National BLS childcare CPI translations are context only, not current state observations.", "No credible evidence assigns fixed national shares of the fertility decline to affordability and preferences." ] }