FINANCEFIRST | REPORT DATA NOTES
Evidence checked: November 1, 2026
Status: Draft, not published.

 Evidence reviewed November 1, 2026. Published estimates, historical observations and illustrative calculations are identified separately. Dollar values are nominal U.S. dollars. AAA figures describe its 2026 new-vehicle model; BLS covers 2025 consumer-unit spending; CFPB covers participating-lender loan originations from 2018 through 2022.  Monthly equivalents divide annual figures by 12. The vehicle-category gap is 16,449 minus 9,259. AAA’s press release gives a gap $1 higher; this report consistently uses the displayed brochure totals. Published ownership and operating subtotals sum to $12,862 while the published weighted total is $12,863. We preserve source rounding rather than altering inputs. The 2026 methodology break prevents a like-for-like comparison with 2025.  Loan payments use M = P × r / (1 − (1 + r)^(−n)), where P is principal, r is the annual interest rate divided by 12, and n is the number of monthly payments. Interest equals n × M − P. Balance after k payments equals P × (1 + r)^k − M × ((1 + r)^k − 1) / r. At zero interest, payment is P / n and balance is P − k × M. The calculations retain full precision until display; daily accrual, payment rounding, fees, late payments and prepayment can change real schedules. No resale forecast is inferred from a loan balance.  The sensitivity examples use selected inputs: 15,000 annual miles, 25 mpg, a $1-per-gallon change, a $50 monthly insurance change and a $100 monthly repair reserve. They are independent scenarios, not observed averages. The report does not model leases, business tax treatment, opportunity cost of capital or every location-specific charge. Use the worksheet to add costs relevant to the actual purchase.  Before a future evidence update, check for revisions in the linked releases and preserve methodology changes. A new publication date alone is not a new observation. No reviewer credentials, survey sample or fieldwork are claimed by this report.  Additional examples are explicitly illustrative. Monthly budget inputs sum to $1,163.29. The repair-or-replace comparison measures 12-month economic costs, with no original purchase cost counted for the already-owned vehicle. The replacement price excludes the separately listed acquisition fees. Line charts show scheduled loan balances, using zero after the final payment. Powertrain non-energy cost is the published total minus the energy component, retaining published rounding.  The two-car tool and workbook apply the same monthly amortization model. Total ownership cost is purchase price minus assumed resale value, plus upfront fees, interest incurred during the holding period and estimated running expenses. Loan payments stop at maturity. Net exit cash is resale less outstanding principal. Each sensitivity changes one input from the base, and the mileage sensitivity changes energy expenses only. No personal inputs are transmitted by the tool.

DATA DICTIONARY

All dollar values are nominal USD unless a column states otherwise.
Blank: not applicable or not provided. No blank is a zero.
An annual AAA cost is annualized under the study's multi-year assumptions.
The cost components are not cash bills all paid at the same time.

aaa-vehicle-costs.csv:
category: exact category concept, with punctuation normalized.
study_year: 2026, not the year of a household survey.
fuel_usd_per_mile: source-published energy input for that category.
maintenance_usd_per_mile: source-published maintenance, repairs, and tires input.
operating_usd_per_mile: source-published combined operating value.
insurance_annual_usd: source-published annual insurance estimate.
license_registration_taxes_annual_usd: source-published annual government-charge estimate.
depreciation_15000_annual_usd: source-published depreciation at 15,000 annual miles.
finance_annual_usd: source-published annualized finance charges.
ownership_annual_usd: source-published ownership subtotal.
operating_15000_annual_usd: source-published operating subtotal at 15,000 miles.
total_10000_annual_usd, total_15000_annual_usd, total_20000_annual_usd: published totals at the named mileages.
cost_per_mile_10000_usd, cost_per_mile_15000_usd, cost_per_mile_20000_usd: source-published per-mile values, not recomputed from rounded totals.
source_url: AAA brochure.
source_locator: table section in the PDF.
evidence_type: published modeled estimate, not observed household expenditure.

aaa-powertrain-comparisons.csv:
category, powertrain: comparison group and propulsion type.
annual_miles: 15000.
energy_annual_usd, maintenance_annual_usd, depreciation_annual_usd, insurance_annual_usd, license_registration_taxes_annual_usd, finance_annual_usd, total_annual_usd: source-published annual estimates.
source_url, source_locator: original table.
evidence_type: published selected-model comparison.

context-data.csv:
metric_id: stable descriptive ID within this package.
value, unit: numeric published value and its unit.
reference_period: data period, distinct from publication date.
population: consumer units or participating-lender loan transactions.
source_url, source_locator: source and exact table/section.
evidence_type: published survey estimate or historical pilot mean.
limitation: scope and interpretation note.

loan-scenarios.csv:
scenario_id: descriptive scenario identifier.
principal_usd: amount borrowed; the incremental row isolates $5,000 of added debt.
annual_interest_rate_percent: 8, chosen for illustration.
months: repayment term.
fees_usd: 0.
monthly_payment_usd: amortization formula output.
total_payments_usd: unrounded payment times term.
total_interest_usd: total payments minus principal.
balance_after_36_payments_usd: modeled remaining principal.
evidence_type: illustrative calculation, not a lender offer or market estimate.

derived-comparisons.csv:
metric_id: descriptive calculation ID.
value, unit: result and units.
formula: reproducible arithmetic with explicit input values or IDs.
input_source: original source or scenario dataset.
interpretation: scope of the comparison.

sensitivity-examples.csv:
metric_id, value, unit: chosen assumption or computed example.
formula_or_assumption: either arithmetic or explicitly selected input.
evidence_type: illustrative assumption or illustrative calculation.


IMPORTANT SOURCE AND ACCOUNTING CHECKS

1. AAA changed its methodology in 2026.
Do not calculate an overall 2025-to-2026 price-growth rate from the study totals. See the 2026 press release.

2. Keep the AAA main study and powertrain comparison separate.
The powertrain table uses selected models in four categories. Its category totals differ from the main study's category totals by design and coverage.

3. Preserve published rounding.
AAA's weighted annual ownership subtotal of $8,506 plus the published operating subtotal of $4,356 equals $12,862. Its published total is $12,863. We retain all three published values.
Fuel and maintenance per-mile components can also differ from the published operating subtotal at the last displayed decimal.
Do not force component sums to match by altering the input data.

4. Use the brochure's published annual totals consistently.
Its $16,449 half-ton-pickup total minus its $9,259 small-sedan total equals $7,190.
AAA's press release gives a $7,191 category gap. That differs by $1, plausibly because of rounding or underlying precision. This package consistently uses the brochure's displayed annual totals and does not substitute the press-release difference.

5. Do not repeat unsupported model counts.
The fact sheet's wording about five models in each of seven categories differs from the press release's stated total number of models. Model count is not needed for this report's calculations and is intentionally omitted. The report identifies the seven category concepts without claiming an independently verified number of models.

6. CFPB negative-equity evidence is historical.
Use the consistent $5,073 and $3,284 mean figures as historical participating-lender findings, not current national averages.
The PDF executive summary and Table 1 report slightly different combined prevalence percentages, and some executive-summary amount-financed values differ from Table 2. Those inconsistent metrics are intentionally not used. No adjustment is invented.

7. BLS is not a per-vehicle dataset.
It measures consumer units, and transportation includes public and other transportation as well as personal-vehicle items.
2025 collection interruptions and a source change affecting one component are disclosed.
Do not add the AAA total to BLS transportation spending or divide one by the other to infer vehicles owned.

8. Distinguish economic cost from cash flow.
Do not add full loan payments to depreciation-based ownership cost. Do not count reserve deposits and the subsequent repair bill twice. Avoid counting taxes both in an out-the-door price and again as a separate acquisition cost.

9. Loan calculations are illustrative.
The 8% rate is an assumption, not sourced as a current average or offer. Fees are zero. Real APR can differ from the contract interest rate. Payment rounding and daily interest can change actual schedules.
The higher remaining balance on a longer loan is not an additional economic loss to add to interest. It accompanies lower payments to date.
Loan balance alone does not establish negative equity without a vehicle valuation.

10. No ten-year cost prediction.
The evergreen element is the decision framework. AAA's five-year benchmark is not extended into a decade-long forecast.