FinanceFirst tariffs report v1.2. Reviewed November 2, 2026. Original publication October 13, 2026 (publisher-confirmed).
All scenarios hypothetical; observed CPI not causal tariff effects; USITC production estimates historical 2021.
<p>Evidence synthesis with illustrative calculations, version 1.2, reviewed November 2, 2026. CPI figures preserve the published unadjusted September-to-September percentages. Category selection is purposive and includes overlapping aggregates; no category average or causal ranking is calculated. Research coefficients retain their original study context. The policy inventory is selective and combines dated notices with a September 30 CRS baseline and October updates.</p><p>Scenario formulas: incremental duty = customs value × (new rate − old rate); buyer increment = incremental duty × assumed pass-through fraction; fixed-basket cost = annual spending × assumed price effect × months affected ÷ 12. These formulas hold the stated bases constant and do not estimate behavioral, exchange-rate, distributional, legal-stacking or general-equilibrium responses. All scenario inputs are assumptions. The counterfactual example uses 98 ÷ 94 − 1 = 4.2553%, rounded to 4.3%.</p><p>No proprietary transaction data were obtained, no new econometric model was estimated and no full-year 2026 household total was calculated. An unavailable Congress.gov page was checked through the identified CRS mirror; original implementation notices are linked separately. This is a dated evidence snapshot. Later releases and policy changes may supersede these observations.</p><p>The added supply-chain example allocates a hypothetical $25 duty across three firms and a household; it does not add a fresh duty at each domestic sale. Supplier substitution and welfare discussion are conceptual extensions supported by the linked research, not newly estimated 2026 effects. Original publication date October 13, 2026 was confirmed by the publisher; this expanded revision was reviewed November 2, 2026.</p>