The Down-Payment Clock: 50 U.S. Metro Areas

The down-payment clock asks a deliberately narrow question: if a household saved 10% of an income proxy each year, how long would it take to accumulate cash equal to 10% of a metro home value as a down payment plus an illustrative 3% for closing costs?

FinanceFirst calculated the same scenario for the 50 largest U.S. metro areas in Zillow Research data published January 15, 2026. The result is a comparison of market-scale cash hurdles. It is not a forecast, mortgage qualification result, recommendation, or estimate for a specific homebuyer.

Core boundary: The clock does not include existing savings, investment returns, wage growth, home-price changes, taxes, gifts, assistance programs, debt payments, rent, emergencies, mortgage insurance, or household-specific closing costs.

Los Angeles produces the longest clock at 12.1 years, followed by San Jose at 11.5, San Diego at 10.3 and San Francisco at 10.0. New York ranks fifth at 8.7 years. In this scenario, San Jose has the largest upfront cash target at approximately $202,500, but its higher implied income proxy leaves Los Angeles with the longer savings clock.

The ranking is driven by the relationship between the 13% cash target and 10% of the implied annual income proxy. A higher home value does not automatically produce the longest clock if the income proxy also rises.

The table shows the longest and shortest clocks. Dollar values are rounded to the nearest dollar and years to one decimal. The complete 50-metro ranking and unrounded calculations are in the downloadable data.

On a small screen: Swipe or use the arrow keys to view all six columns.

Pittsburgh has the shortest clock at 3.5 years. The Los Angeles result is about 3.5 times as long, but that ratio describes this fixed scenario only. It does not measure overall affordability, quality of life, local taxes, inventory, or the financial condition of residents.

Los Angeles provides a reproducible example. Zillow reports a $942,285 home value, a $5,697 monthly mortgage cost under its 20%-down scenario, and that cost as 67.3% of median household income.

1. Implied annual income proxy: $5,697 × 12 ÷ 0.673 = $101,580.98.
2. Required cash: $942,285 × (10% + 3%) = $122,497.05.
3. Annual savings: $101,580.98 × 10% = $10,158.10.
4. Time: $122,497.05 ÷ $10,158.10 = 12.059 years, reported as 12.1 years.

The use of Zillow's 20%-down mortgage cost and income share is limited to recovering an income proxy from the published table. The cash target is a separate FinanceFirst 10%-down scenario. The report does not claim the resulting monthly payment would match Zillow's 20%-down payment or account for mortgage insurance.

For the financing side of the decision, read FinanceFirst's 2026 housing affordability and mortgage lock-in report. First-time homeownership became less affordable across most of the United States in recent years, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City research. That broader evidence supports examining entry barriers, but it does not validate one universal savings rate or cash target.

A real household should replace every scenario input: target property, down-payment program, closing-cost estimate, current savings, monthly contribution, debt obligations, emergency reserve, taxes, insurance, association fees, maintenance and a lender quote. A 3% closing-cost allowance can be too high or too low, and some buyers use less than 10% down.

Do not read rank 50 as easy or rank 1 as impossible. Both conclusions would go beyond the data.

The complete package is ungated and includes all 50 metros, raw source inputs, unrounded calculations, formulas, dates, notes and source links.

• CSV: complete 50-metro data
• XLSX: formula-driven analysis workbook
• PDF: publication summary
• TXT: methodology and formula notes

Metro-level values conceal variation within each market. Zillow definitions, geographic coverage and modeling choices govern the source inputs. The implied income measure is algebraically recovered from rounded published figures, so it is a proxy rather than a separately reported income estimate. Results can change materially with a different down payment, closing-cost estimate, savings rate, investment return, starting balance or data release.

• August 22, 2026, version 1.1: Added contextual housing links and improved ranking-table navigation and semantics; data and calculations are unchanged.
• August 21, 2026, version 1.0: Initial publication using Zillow Research inputs published January 15, 2026. FinanceFirst calculations retrieved and checked August 21, 2026.

See the FinanceFirst corrections policy or submit a data question.